Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall

Atlantic City, NJ

Night 1 of 3 · Show 1 of 8 · 2026 Fall Tour

Song odds

Chance each song gets played at this show

1Sand Played 22 of last 100 · last played Sep 5, 2 shows ago33%
28% chance each4 songs
1. 2Harry Hood Played 24 of last 100 · last Sep 428%
2. 3Wolfman's Brother Played 20 of last 100 · last Sep 428%
3. 4Free Played 19 of last 100 · last Sep 528%
4. 5Back on the Train Played 18 of last 100 · last Sep 528%
21% chance each4 songs
1. 6Ghost Played 22 of last 100 · last Sep 621%
2. 7Theme from the Bottom Played 16 of last 100 · last Jul 2721%
3. 8Carini Played 20 of last 100 · last Sep 521%
4. 9Character Zero Played 20 of last 100 · last Sep 421%
20% chance each2 songs
1. 10Also Sprach Zarathustra Played 19 of last 100 · last Jul 2420%
2. 11A Wave of Hope Played 18 of last 100 · last Sep 520%
18% chance each16 songs
1. 12Stash Played 18 of last 100 · last Aug 118%
2. 13Light Played 19 of last 100 · last Sep 618%
3. 14Everything's Right Played 20 of last 100 · last Sep 618%
4. 15No Men In No Man's Land Played 18 of last 100 · last Sep 418%
5. 16Bathtub Gin Played 17 of last 100 · last Jul 2418%
6. 17Run Like an Antelope Played 18 of last 100 · last Sep 418%
7. 18The Moma Dance Played 18 of last 100 · last Sep 518%
8. 19My Friend, My Friend Played 19 of last 100 · last Sep 618%
9. 20Mike's Song Played 16 of last 100 · last Aug 118%
10. 21Chalk Dust Torture Played 21 of last 100 · last Sep 518%
11. 22Slave to the Traffic Light Played 16 of last 100 · last Jul 2418%
12. 23Bouncing Around the Room Played 12 of last 100 · last Jul 2218%
13. 24Down with Disease Played 17 of last 100 · last Sep 418%
14. 25Tube Played 15 of last 100 · last Sep 418%
15. 26Oblivion Played 17 of last 100 · last Sep 418%
16. 27Weekapaug Groove Played 16 of last 100 · last Aug 118%

Generated setlist

A plausible setlist, not a prediction of order.

Open the setlist

How the odds are calculated

Every past show is paired with every song Phish had played before it, and a model (LightGBM, a kind of decision-tree ensemble) learns what tended to come before a song turning up. The strongest signal is the gap — shows since a song was last played. A song is about half as likely the night after it’s played and most likely four to eight shows later.

How often it’s been played lately, where the show sits in its run and tour, and how new the song is also count. A few rules go on top: a song already played earlier in a multi-night run drops to 2%, and Weekapaug Groove moves with Mike’s Song. The line under each song is its biggest single factor.

How accurate is it, honestly?

Tested on 200 past shows, 37% of the songs Phish actually played were in our top 20. A simple baseline built like Phish.net’s Trey’s Notebook — the most-played songs of the past year — got 31%. That test is a little flattering, and most of any night still goes uncalled: openers are hard, debuts can’t be predicted, and Halloween and New Year’s surprise sets aren’t attempted.

Every show from the fall tour on gets scored in public. See the track record.

Where the data comes from

Setlists, songs and venues come from the Phish.net API, courtesy of Phish.net and The Mockingbird Foundation. Song lengths come from Phish.in and are used to fit the generated setlist into realistic set times.

Each morning a job pulls any new shows, scores the last prediction against what was actually played, retrains the model and publishes fresh odds. Only Phish shows count — side projects are left out. Phish.net’s terms don’t allow republishing their data, so there’s no download here.